Economic Waves: Navigating Uncertainty

Make sure to check out today’s Waves Partnership!

Hey wave rider!

In this edition, we take a closer look at the ongoing pullback in US equities, driven by a weaker labor market and disappointing non-farm payroll data. Adding to the uncertainty is the fallout from yesterday's presidential debate, which has left investors on edge. All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision next Wednesday, with most expecting a rate cut, although a 50 basis point increase—while unlikely—remains on the table. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies are underperforming equities as markets wait for clarity on the direction of rate cuts, and commodities, especially those tied to Chinese demand, continue to face headwinds amidst global economic concerns.

This week, our Technical Analysis covers BTC, ETH, and WIF. We cover RIVN on stocks. Follow the detailed plans carefully and pull the trigger only at the recommended levels. Finally, we provide updates on trading exchanges, Crypto and the AI sector. Enjoy, and good luck out there.

The Wave

This week has been a tough one for equity markets, with the S&P 500 dropping 4.2% and the Nasdaq falling 5.8%, signaling a correction. The commodity sector isn't faring much better, with oil trading below $70 and copper around $4, as recession fears for 2025 start to impact prices.

The VIX, often referred to as the “fear index,” is drawing attention as it measures expected volatility in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. A rising VIX typically indicates increased uncertainty or fear, while a falling VIX suggests growing investor confidence. The VIX is also linked to a complex ecosystem of derivatives, including futures contracts and ETFs, that allow traders to track or leverage its movements. One such product, the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF ($UVXY), offers 1.5x leveraged exposure to the daily performance of the VIX. Despite recent pullbacks, $UVXY remains slightly bullish, indicating potential for increased market volatility ahead.

Key macro events in the coming weeks, such as the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) policy decisions on September 18-19, are likely to influence market movements. The BOJ’s meeting, often overlooked, plays a crucial role in global finance due to its impact on the Yen carry trade. A Fed rate cut, anticipated by many, could serve as a catalyst for a rebound in real estate sectors like office and retail, which were significantly affected by the pandemic.

We rode the wave!

• TSLA - TSLA at 210.60, called the long to 225, and it rode higher than 230. Surf's up!

• BTC - We dove in at $56k and $54k, and rode the BTC wave all the way to $58k. Surf's up!

• SOL - We caught the Solana wave at $123, and it cruised up to $137. Surf’s up!

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